How do Nuclear Weapons Impact Risk of Conventional Conflict?

The best case study on the impact of nuclear weapons on the risks of conventional conflict is the tense relationship between India and Pakistan. The two nations have gone to war 4 times, in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999. India detonated its first nuclear weapon in 1974, while Pakistan achieved the same feat in 1998.

Pakistan was born in 1947, which means that the Indian-Pakistani relationship has existed for around 69 years. For the first 27 years, there were no nuclear weapons in the region. 3 wars broke out, which yields an annual chance of war of around 11.1%. After India developed nuclear weapons, one war broke out. This yields an implied rate of 2.38%. If we assume nuclear weapons are the cause of this stark decrease, then we can say nuclear weapons reduced the chance of war between India and Pakistan by a factor of approximately 4.66.